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During the 2016 US presidential election campaign, Viktor Orbán emerged as the sole EU chief to endorse the Republican candidate. This alignment came as no shock, given Mr Orbán's embrace of divisive notions including the "great replacement" theory and the restrictions against press independence. Commentators have noted that Mr Orbán essentially laid the groundwork for the Make America Great Again campaign, with former White House strategist Steve Bannon lauding him as the "Trump before Trump".

Political Favors In advance of the Hungarian Vote

Last week, with key votes in Hungary merely half a year off, Donald Trump offered electoral assistance. With Orbán pursues a fifth consecutive term leading a country he calls an illiberal democracy, his Fidesz party is behind in surveys. A meeting to the US capital resulted in beyond Trump campaign souvenirs; it brought considerably more valuable campaign boosts.

Energy Exemptions and Financial Shields

Although earlier admonishing European nations on the necessity to halt all fuel purchases from the Russian Federation, and threatening restrictions against states continuing to import Russian energy, Mr Trump consented to provide a unique waiver for Hungary – the top consumer among EU members of Russian crude. According to Mr Orbán, the American leadership also agreed to provide a fiscal buffer to Budapest if it encounters any upcoming challenges, especially as EU institutions persists in holding back billions in EU funding to Hungary on grounds of violations of legal standards.

The specifics of this deal remain unclear. Yet Donald Trump recently demonstrated his readiness to assist ideological allies after the America provided a $20bn emergency credit line to Argentina’s far-right president, Argentina's president. Although Orbán failed to obtain a presidential tour to Budapest, the discussions still turned out to be a successful endeavor.

Brussels' Worries and Geopolitical Stakes

Within EU circles, Mr Trump’s intervention likely highlighted the geopolitical stakes of the forthcoming polls, ahead of which the opposition candidate, Péter Magyar, has a clear edge in surveys. European leaders know not to expect principled consistency from the Trump White House, and are familiar with the American leader's attempts to undermine the European Union. But the special treatment for Orbán – which came at the price of an deal to acquire American natural gas and nuclear power – blatantly weakens European goals to phase out Russian fossil fuel imports by the target date.

• From 2022 onward, the top importers in the EU of Russian petroleum, Hungary and Slovakia, have provided well over £10bn to the Russian military campaign.
• At the same time, Hungary has consistently deployed the veto power to impede moves in negotiations for Ukraine's EU membership.
• As Europe strives to develop a cohesive plan for supporting Kyiv, and enhancing its leverage in any future peace negotiations, Mr Orbán’s Putin-friendly presence at the negotiating table remains a significant obstacle.

Rival's Approach

The opposition candidate has avoided pledging a major policy shift on Ukraine, and centered his campaign on home affairs, while emphasizing the necessity for the country to begin operating as a productive EU partner. After enduring persistent provocations, the European Union can only hold out hope. The Hungarian leader's apathy to basic EU values, including the upholding of minority rights and the autonomy of civic groups, has remained a source of shame for the EU. His continued obstructionism toward Ukrainian matters could harm its future security.